• Christopher Hall

Trading Shares and their Volume Indicators

Volume normally increases at the top and bottom of markets. Gary Glover from Novus Capital identifies the trading shares that have large volume and strong indications of accumulation - the key phase before a share rallies.

[00:00:02] We are looking at the share market and we've seen the market has come up, try again. Looking at the share market, we're finding trading opportunities after the market has rallied from its lows and is now seeing a bit of pullback. The question is will it keep going higher and are shares to trade? Or do we switch to look to the downside? The main guiding us through is Gary Glover from NOBIS Capital. Good morning, Gary. How are you? [00:00:26][23.9]

[00:00:27] I'm very good, chris. how are you going [00:00:28][0.9]

[00:00:29] Well, well, we've seen that market rally. You pinpointed a few marks on the Aussie in the US markets jumped too. But before we do that, we have a look at your portfolio. Your portfolio is now up 2.4 percent. The ozone index for the financial year is down about two point eight percent. Many 20g to the portfolio at the moment. [00:00:49][19.6]

[00:00:52] I haven't made too many times that all had one unsuccessful trade last week, tried to pick that aurel low there, but wasn't counting on negatives. So I don't think so. But I still do like the old sector here, so I think I might go back to playing the stocks here rather than the Slatyer. Say with Trump troubles. He got himself into trouble in the states. But but you know the markets. Yeah. [00:01:19][26.4]

[00:01:19] Look, I think that either I just face too many too much bearishness there, Chris. That's that's my sort of feeling ism. And we saw, though, I think last week our reporter mentioned that the number of short positions on the S&P futures was the greatest it's been since January 2016. So just tells you the majority of the market, you know, like a lot of people short. So you just trust a crowded trade. So just my experience in a crowded trades, they just don't necessarily work very well. And, you know, it kind of means everyone's already there. So you need to be. You need to have people piling into your trade rather than already in the trade, you know? So, yeah. So just kind of see you that day. And I still think there's still too much bearishness here. And markets markets called the worry. And, you know, it's just it just takes time to play out. Everyone's too much more rushed to have this bear market be done and dusted. [00:02:13][54.5]

[00:02:14] It just I just think they can take a long time to play it. They can take a few years to play out. So I get this one here. I get the feeling here this, you know, with demand and money being thrown into the you know, the government say that there's a bit of support there in the short term. I just think pink. I mean, with with all the money in the system, they say one gonna be sort of probably okay till October. [00:02:33][19.4]

[00:02:34] So maybe, you know, we we really won't know until maybe later on the year. So that's why I think markets can just sort of climb. The other is going to choppy, messy. But I just think there's too many people short here. [00:02:46][11.7]

[00:02:46] So they're going to have to get squeezed a bit higher here first, I think. So still looking Volos levels a bit higher. But yeah, just this ultimately I think the market go a bit high. [00:02:56][10.0]

[00:02:57] This. The shorts are on the US market. You've been talking about this in a way one step ahead of the Australian market. So it's it's the past, the 50 percent retracement one last week you were looking for any Fibonacci level of sixty one point eight percent. Does it look like the US will get you thinking it's been in choppy movement? We might move within a week? [00:03:19][22.3]

[00:03:20] Yeah, look to where it has stopped. Is is the old two thousand eighteen high. So. So there is a bit of a level there, but I still think that goes a bit higher there. I kind of think maybe my sixty one point eight is conservatives as a conservative. So of them get higher than that. But it is a big level. They see the sixty one point eight and also the previous peak there in 2008 as well. That expanded top there. So there's a few levels. And so I think I think I'll be choppy here, but I just really want to see some you know, some more of the bankers get shaken out here. [00:03:56][36.2]

[00:03:56] And I mean, I sort of started to see a couple of giants who do tend to sort of choke at the wrong time. Tell everyone to get out when the market's on its knees and then after its bounce. Fifteen, 20 percent there. The thing about come back in again. So I started to see them start to come back in again now after a short bounce to fair. [00:04:15][19.0]

[00:04:16] So there always saw the signs that that sorta starting to wade into the water side kind of, you know, feel like I've got to watch them come in light, get trapped and then, you know, maybe a little bit higher than when the squeeze comes in. So I just I just think that's the sort of a play here. Something. Yeah, the three levels to what's there. [00:04:34][18.3]

[00:04:34] So what's that different process in Iraq? I do think sixty one point eight of the US's is pretty likely there. And I think, you know, the 50 percent mark Adam, 50 percent sort of range on our mark. I think that's going to be tested as well. So I just think it takes a bit of time here. Just could be a bit messy, a bit choppy, that's all. [00:04:52][17.9]

[00:04:53] So we're not for the Australian market. We're not quite at a 50 percent range retracement when we was doing a peak decline. [00:04:59][6.2]

[00:05:00] Yeah, yeah, that's right. So we've gone to the gone past the thirty eight point two fib, but haven't gone to the 50 per cent. We need to sort of go back to just under fifty eight hundred. So somewhere in fifty seven idea be probably the perfect sort of touch there. But, but the one thing I mentioned last week that the volumes were in pretty, pretty robust. [00:05:19][19.2]

[00:05:20] So we haven't seen markets going up on declining buying the same pretty robust sort of marketing. So we had a few equity raisings as well. So I thought that might sort of take place. [00:05:32][11.9]

[00:05:33] Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's like obviously yesterday you saw and I'd be raised. So the other three banks are down because probably the view is they got to sell some of that to take take it up. So you always get you was a bit of a. Action is, I think, yes, we've seen so far this the stocks of sort of probably had a little bit of a downward move after they've done the rising. But then, you know, after a few days of sort of generally settle the most high after that. So pretty again, pretty good signs across the board. But my money worries up to the zero year is either March or my other two classic comics for love. So I do think the March flowers set here now. I think that's not going to be broken in the short term. You can get a hole, you know, like a highlight of my show that could be some sort of double retest and may. But I just so far, I'm just saying it seems so strength to us. It seems pretty robust to me. [00:06:33][59.7]

[00:06:33] So let's have a look at some of the trading shares trading in these ranging units, movement Istalif with Medibank Private. It has come down like the rest of the market, although if we look back over the last couple of years, this is not unfamiliar territory. It was only eighty months or so ago, not even that far. What's the chart telling you for the trade on Medibank? [00:06:54][21.4]

[00:06:56] It has just been pretty chopping up lately. I guess the thing jumping out me there is the volume again. So we look at look at the last couple of years, look the volume at some really fairly fairly jumping out there for the last three years. So when you've had a decent sort of drop like that in the volume spike, something I that volume, it's it comes out of one or two places. It's you know, it's sort of distributing or is it accumulating? You know, that's that as a question you could ask. So when you see big volume, so considred, we've had a pretty decent downloads 360 down to two to 60 to 50 here. Then it looks like a cumulation is taking place here. So it could. Sometimes I can expand to margin you low back to 230 here, but it just doesn't look like that's going to be the case. [00:07:40][44.6]

[00:07:41] He looks looks kind of Serbia and we move on to the property side of the market. It has been hard hit. Investors are concerned about devaluations to come and intenet concerns that looking at shopping centers Australasia SCDP is seen as a reasonable Friday. What's what's the goal in this trade here? [00:08:01][20.8]

[00:08:02] So, I mean, Elstree. Like this, this originally started, this Woolworths spinoff, Property Trust took basically it was all or Woolworths best properties all rolled up into no trust there. [00:08:16][13.7]

[00:08:16] So long leases, quality properties, the rest. And since then, it's domestic, a bit more gone into smaller centers and even a few calls and stuff in there as well. [00:08:25][9.2]

[00:08:25] So but performance has been pretty pretty good. But. In this sort of contractual environment, property trust, I do too well, you've probably used to come often and get devalued down, then puts pressure on and that's people are sort of worried about. Do you think this one here is one of the more quality orientated trust him in Australia? I just think it's some, you know, mom places pretty good sector to be in as well. Supermarkets are what they've been reporting. [00:08:53][27.4]

[00:08:54] And the strongest in the country. [00:08:55][1.1]

[00:08:56] So, I mean, obviously, you got the younger side shops sort of, you know, in the centers that they're in. But it just definitely a pretty, pretty blue chips. But again, look at the look at the volume in the last probably five or six weeks, a pretty strong volume occurring down here this low. So these guys have already raised money here. And part of the part of the part of the rationale for raising money, not just to get through the cycle was to be looking at other assets in this cycle, actually to try and try to pick some up on the knees. So I just think there's guys say I just I like this property trust CFA, but just being one property trust is the one that I'd I'd type I'd go into. So I do like this whole thing anyway. Damn, the internet to tennis is pretty pretty it level. Pretty good yield as well. So yeah, recent history growth there just it is going to be a tough place to be. But I think this one is one that can you can still sort of fund quite well. [00:09:55][58.8]

[00:09:56] Knows it and we move on to a bank or more state limited if we're looking at the banks in general. You've mentioned the capital raisings being sold in part to finance the NAB rise and possibly ANZ or Westpac had some as well in the future. You're actually on the boss side. Well, it seemed that banking on its base, one in my state. And what's the trade? [00:10:19][23.0]

[00:10:20] Yeah, just like look, I like the technicals, actually, the sort of thing that holds a pretty, pretty sharp selloff, sort of 50 percent decline there. But you're pretty quick proton just to sing songs of accumulation, the signs of the pullback, the volume start, the drop. [00:10:35][15.2]

[00:10:36] This looks like a first high low on the daily. So pass congestion. The others think this can and can pop higher here. So try and get arising. Come out of the blue here. It does look quite good. [00:10:48][11.6]

[00:10:48] My money negative is obviously it's the banking sector here, but I a lot like nice banks. I'm out of this think there. You know, there's been some pretty bad news out here and that will help them. And they're all congesting and they're probably in the sector that's underperformed so far. So I like the CommBank has come back to yesterday, sir. Yeah. Look, I'm not going to shoot the lights out here, but I do think they can improve from PE nowso these three trading shays's the week ahead. [00:11:17][29.4]

[00:11:18] And we'll look forward to the updates next week for the trading opportunities that you fainted in front of us. Thank you, Gary. Gloving from Novus Capital. Thanks, Chris. [00:11:26][8.0]


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