• Christopher Hall

Preparing for the next pullback - Selling into the Strength


The US and Australian markets approach key technical levels that signal downward pressure Gary Glover of Novus Capital is preparing to sell into the strength.

Glover walks through the charts, the resistance levels and the trades that he's taking into this market movement.

[00:00:08] Here we are looking at the markets and identifying the top trading shares and the way to trade the markets, the main guiding us through is Gary Glover from Notis Capital. Good morning, Gary. How are you? [00:00:17][8.0]

[00:00:17] And I'm excellent, Chris. Hi again. [00:00:18][0.9]

[00:00:19] Well, I'm very well, but I'm also happy to see that portfolio. We've got six weeks or so from the full financial year, and at the moment you're up about 6 percent. The market's donating. So you must be doing something right. [00:00:31][12.3]

[00:00:33] Getting there and getting there may be nice if we can get to 10. Has he mentioned the last couple of weeks that smile? My hope is to get support. And so it's him. I can get to fifty eight hundred there. What was that? 50 percent? The range that that could give us a fair chance. And so obviously strong day today, which is which is fantastic. So but yeah, we're just a little bit of timing ahead here. So we're just going to be hopefully we can push on the next couple of days. But yeah, definitely see some strong resistance ahead here. So. [00:01:02][29.6]

[00:01:03] Well, that's that's a good point to to move to those levels that you've been looking at. And you mentioned stealing the strength in the portfolio as we reach those technical levels. If we look at the S&P 500, that's show that you've got there. Is there any changes or is it still conforming to that current play sheet that you've marked down over the last few weeks? [00:01:23][19.5]

[00:01:24] So you sort of look, we didn't think the 50 percent was going to stop it here because we sort of thought we get sixty one point eight and just has to keep mentioning the last few weeks that their markets take a long time to play out so they can be quite messy. [00:01:37][12.2]

[00:01:38] You need to squeeze squeeze the bears so bad a little bit here and need to get everyone a bit more optimistic as well. And yeah, it's just interesting that we've sort of hit that sixty one point eight. We bounced back to the fifty level. So twice the announcer found support there twice and then in. So it's interesting. We're sort of troop levels. So, you know, a pretty important year so far. So we're sort of definitely at some resolution of those. I still favor a retest of the 200 day moving average, which is around 3000 on the S&P. So I'm just not a little bit. We'll be watching that. So we we've got you know, we're getting within sort of clearly there last night. So why is. I really think three thousand is the is the mark there. But yeah, I think that that's that's a point that we might face some resistance and this event getting a bit more buoyant here. So you want to see or entrap the market into thinking that it's all going to we're all going to come out and say, yes, we're getting close to a sorry, but a couple more days. I think that might be enough. But I think if we get to 3000 on the S&P, it may personally be looking at probably a short position on someone. So that's why I think that might be a little. [00:02:54][76.3]

[00:02:55] And obviously expecting to see the Australian market possibly peaking at the same time, but it hasn't run that same exchange. You've also mentioned in this week's report that you've noticed confections in the crosswinds in the Australian market. So how does that impact the outlook of the Aussie? [00:03:12][17.0]

[00:03:14] Yeah. So so so I think we've seen the same reasonable volume so far on the market, which is which has sort of been pretty positive. And then and then we've sort of seen hail say we took that. We haven't got the 50 cent the retracement there, but we will see how it would bounce. The last three or last couple of weeks. We've bounced off the old 50 per cent of the range, which is important for our market. But for the main important thing there is that we've sort of pulled back and then we've rallied again. Then the next pullback has been showed a rally again and a pullback and it's been shorter again. I just just means that each pullback is getting, you know, getting less and less. And that typically is, you know, is a is a positive or a bullish sign. So that's why I. Chris. But volatility, contraction, pattern, there is a, you know, a positive set up. But the volumes was good as well. So we're sort of getting level lower volume on the pullbacks and then getting volume on that on the uplay. So yeah, just sort of that bodes well for a break up here, which I think we've done today and is ideally still looking for that. [00:04:17][62.9]

[00:04:18] I'm looking for around that fifty seven eighty five. I don't get too close saying but I'm somewhere around day I think. I think that they are I'll probably I'll probably cut majority probably but I've seen a portfolio of sorts that that'll be a great level but everything's slowing. So in my opinion which everybody calls around taking a bit off the top they will make when they get that level. [00:04:37][19.5]

[00:04:39] And another one if we're looking into trading shares sort of things. Another one is a. It's working that stimulate contractions. You've got the rallies and then the pullbacks. It's becoming less and less that eagles are the profit targets of area meqdad on that chart. How does that get together? [00:04:56][17.9]

[00:04:58] Yeah. So like I guess the the exchange there was more like a symmetrical sort of triangle there, the one that I really like us as the like the ascending sort of. So we're going to flat top and then h pull back at Shellman, Challen and Shell until you eventually break through. So I love this setup. Here is a pretty, pretty clear sort of once you break through the top, close above it, then you've sort of got a target of the apex there, which. So we're giving us a target up in that high 160. So I think most people be in long known people who will be hoping for it to recover up there. So that's probably a bit of a guide there. A few things happening, the background there as well as there's talk of them selling the insurance business there. So that'll help with the balance sheet. So. Yeah. David Murray has been sort of talking it up a little bit more positively. So, yeah, potentially sort of things moving more and more positive direction there. But I think a breakout of the break of that range will be, you know, will be a good sign there in the short term. So I typically find when they break these ranges, they they tend to kick they can't hit the target pretty quickly. So do a lot of work. And finally, you know, finally break through when it can it can really punch to the target quite quickly. [00:06:11][73.1]

[00:06:12] And another one is similar kind of triangular pattern is the Carsales map that he does that definitely apply exactly the same set up there, obviously probably a strong position and the bounce has been a lot more been been stronger today. [00:06:28][15.4]

[00:06:28] That's sort of gone up and probably three wise there. But again, we sort of tightened up each pull back challen sheller number, obviously. [00:06:35][6.7]

[00:06:36] Yeah, I'm sure there is quite a few of that. We had a feel I IPA, Hager's and Clip's there last week. So a few stocks in this sector starting to pop up. So account sounds. It's done the same thing pop through that level. So yeah. So we've added this one to the portfolio just just running it raised more so the tight stop on it with a view to sort of getting around that sixteen fifty with sort of put out targeting this a little bit shy. That would be sort of reaching for the stars too much just to keep it within the measure. And then yeah that looks pretty positive as well as when I like. So I feel like the leading stocks have been leading here. [00:07:14][38.3]

[00:07:14] So. Yeah. Sorry. The strongest in every sector there is has performed pretty well. Trembly. [00:07:21][6.5]

[00:07:22] Just stay with the ladies in the respective industry and not try work with the lights. [00:07:26][3.6]

[00:07:27] You're exactly right. Once you sort of get term. At the moment here though, the banks are looking like they're lagging. So everyone's looking at them sort of saying all is value there, but that just kind of off the canvas can't get going. So there's an interesting sort of patents appearing there and then but it's not moving. So whereas some of the high growth stuff is really moving and then the latest sunbathing. So I think you just going to play with some movers here so you get booked in the blanks for some time. [00:07:55][28.5]

[00:07:56] Time will tell. Yeah. You know, looking at these triangles, these have been coming from big drop that we saw on the market. They've been even more explosive in wild swings with some of the leading cheese in the market. One of them was Cokley and it has fallen dramatically and it had rather aggressive rallies. And then you can see the charts and be candle's this triangle eve market here is a little bit different. Was this one from a different angle? What does that mean for the trade? [00:08:25][28.4]

[00:08:26] Look, it's, I guess, a more symmetrical sort of triangle there. [00:08:30][3.8]

[00:08:30] But again, we're sort of look that we are sort of coming from a somewhat downward move here. [00:08:37][6.6]

[00:08:37] So there is a bit of a risk, this money. So you really want to be waiting for a break here and probably keeping giving it pretty tight. I just thought this was like the last little part of this move here as we sort of get me. So a pullback got smaller. I got a flat base in this case. And then they were starting to sort of break up in business. The last few days have been congesting here. So it just looks like a ready to sort of pop out of that range. So I think what pops out of mind, you can sort of keep going. But just because we've sort of come down to the triangle, we've just got to be a little bit careful that one little bit more careful. So oftentimes, you know, so they so triangles patent say that they're often a pause in the trend. [00:09:18][41.1]

[00:09:18] So the risky with obviously Cochrane's move down into the triangle. And then in general terms, I move in favor of the price move, which is obviously which is not good, but just not just sort of noticing that oftentimes it can break out. I think it's probably around 65 percent Solin Or 60 percent break in fiber to move in. So some so it's not like it's not like a long shot. They were sort of around 40, 45 percent of them would break up. So it just just go back to the break. That's really what it comes down to the three stops. [00:09:52][33.7]

[00:09:53] And we see an explosive move. So a quick profit target if it does appear. [00:09:57][4.2]

[00:09:58] Yeah, that's right. So it's sort of from just discontent. I chased him here because obviously you've got to have your targets in there. I personally sort of work on the threat for wonderous rewards. So if my target does, it must stop in target date sort of thing, add up to a 3 to 1 risk reward that are just not worth taking the trade from. So I just got to make sure it all stacks up in a fun one to look to see whether it stacks up. [00:10:23][25.5]

[00:10:24] Same in the healthcare space as well. You looked at Randy before and we can see that it's starting to break in the upside of that downward slugging trend. So how's the trade work for Randy? [00:10:35][10.9]

[00:10:35] He is this one sort of go to why his son decides to someone. We can sort of sort of we get a little pullback back to sort of under sixty three. I'd I'd probably try and get to it, but it hasn't looked back. It's just sort of kept going here. But again, just these are sort of sort of trades. He wants to sort of get a pretty impulsive move up and you get a bit of a pause in the trends of consolidation. And once you're sort of breaking out of that on volume, they that sense, that's the sort of trade you want to paint again. So, you know, it's not the leader as well and in this industry. So just as highlighting sort of. Yes, that's true. Staying with us with the strongest stocks here and then trying to trying to. Dogs. I guess so. So I just stick with the stick with the strong ones here, sir. [00:11:16][41.1]

[00:11:18] Were they the trading shares this week and looking forward to the updates coming into the end of financial year, seeing that portfolio performs because it's running rings around the market at the moment and we look forward to see what comes at that point yet. [00:11:29][10.8]

[00:11:30] Yeah, just going to be cable the next couple days. Chris, I sort of got some good some pretty strong timing in the market, so we'll bring it near the fifty eight hundred on our market. And then I think that the S&P gets up near three thousand in the next couple of days. That that's probably yes. Will probably be a warning for me that yes, you can go back and look at some 2000 top other top say so that you can get a pretty strong bounce. You get a bit and overlapping sort of top. [00:11:56][26.4]

[00:11:56] They wouldn't get upset. But we're sort of roughly three months, right, Heidi? So that's just a bit of a risky particularly sort of move. So when you sort of get another point, let's say you sort of that that's sort of telling you were getting into the risky part here. So just about maybe another one or three days. Yeah, I think that's probably time to take some money off the table and hope it will take a lot of time potentially. [00:12:17][21.2]

[00:12:19] Well, there we have it. The words of caution in what we're into, trading markets, trading within the overall market with the ups and the downs ahead. Thank you, Gary Glover from Nova's Capital. Thanks, Chris. [00:12:36][17.5]

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