Arrow Securities Group
 
Copyright © Arrow Securities Group Pty Ltd 2018
 
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Shares in Play identifies the top trading shares on the Australian Share Market.

Throughout every market cycle there are winners and losers on the share market.

Whether the market is rising or falling there will always be a share that runs rings around the rest of the market.

This is the share that everyone wishes they had bought and which they talk about at BBQs for years afterwards - does anyone remember Poseidon from the 1970's? Poseidon went from $0.80 to $280 within six months, that's 55,000%pa.

Shares in Play identifies the leading companies which are primed for such movements in today's markets.

While the markets never repeat themselves, they often rhyme. The rhymes that have echoed for over 150 years are the key drivers behind the Shares in Play research.

Rhymes:


1. Leading companies don't lead in isolation, but with sister companies. Often there is an economic tailwind propelling the industry higher. This is most evident when reviewing shares within their industries, or with 'sisters' as coined by Jessie Livermore (1877 -1940).


2. Leaders lead for only half as long as laggards lag.
Much like a bicycle race, leading companies are jostling for first place and often switch between first, second and third.


At the tail end of the market’s companies however, the laggards trudge along and often remain in last place for longer. Much like the tail end of a bicycle race, the exhausted riders have lost sight of the leaders and either dawdle to the finish or drop out of the race.


Thomas Bulkowski's studies have shown that this pattern repeats throughout multiple market cycles.


3. Institutional Sponsorship drives publicity and continued demand.
The best performing companies get a lot of coverage in the media, although this is in the later stages of the cycle.

 

The 'smart money', or institutional investors, have done their research, bought early and have bought their full line of shares. Once their position is set, they'll then actively talk about their investments, which ramps up when the share price and media work together for greater awareness.

 

William O'Neil noticed this process in his famed CAN SLIM approach to investing. Observing the number of shares changing hands in a company can provide significant insights into the health of trends, themes and share price bubbles.


4. Markets follow cycles and so does Shares in Play.
Every market situation is unique; however, history can provide a strong guide about how investors and markets behave, in similar situations. Richard Wycoff noted that each share conforms to the four stages of the cycle:

 

a.     Accumulation;

b.     Mark-up;

c.      Distribution; and

d.     Markdown Phase.

 

When combining these repeating rhymes of the market, the chances of selecting prosperous shares increases dramatically - these are the Shares in Play which we bring to you in our regular market updates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday 4 April 2018

Market created a pipe bottom where it rallied from lows at the same level as yesterday’s lows.

 

While this pattern is best seen on a weekly chart, the last time the AU market rallied 250+ points from the Feb 2018 lows was also off a similar pipe bottom on the daily charts.

 

Trading shares for tomorrow are those with strong footings today. Should a rally or break out ensue, chances of larger intra-day ranges are high for these Shares In Play:

 

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL [IGO] – trading within a congestion zone, closed above zone today with a modest volume rise, after bucking the market’s trend yesterday.

 

REX MINERALS LIMITED [RXM] – Two days of stronger than average volume, closing higher against the general market trend. Possible High and Tight Flag breakout – caution as this is the third HTF in this rally.

 

APPEN LIMITED [APX] – Trading up off support, reasonable candle, reasonable volume. High Beta.

 

BLACKHAM RESOURCES LIMITED [BLK] – trading off a low base, broken above the $0.10 mark and continues with reasonable volume. High share price leverage to beta and gold prices.

 

Tuesday 3 April 2018

Heavy lead from the US markets, mostly shaken off by the AU market, down -0.13%

 

MELBOURNE IT LIMITED [MLB] – strong candle from congestion base with mild volume spike above recent averages. Break above down trendline supportive of upward movement.

PANTORO LIMITED [PNR] – High volume, large range, strong candle.

Thursday 29 March 2018

The AU market down, -0.52%.

 

Stronger companies stand out more easily on down days.

 

The stand-out shares from today’s trading, are the Shares In Play for tomorrow :

 

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC [JHX] – symmetrical triangle forming near 52wh, volume was up today was a reasonable candle.

 

Tuesday 27 March 2018

The AU market up 0.72% helps trading prospects.

 

The stand out shares from today’s trading, are the Shares In Play for tomorrow:

BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED [BAL] – possible evening star formation, bearish.

BOOM LOGISTICS LIMITED [BOL] – decent volume in congestion zone. Check sister support for canaries in the coal mine. BOL has strong price leverage to sisters rallying.

COCHLEAR LIMITED [COH] – large ranges today, great for day traders with large, solid intra-day trends.

GWA GROUP LIMITED [GWA] – strong candle, possible Cup and Handle Break out (odd cup) or complex Head and Shoulders Bottom break out.

IMDEX LIMITED [IMD] – failed break out could extend to reasonable intra-day movements.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED [JIN] – break out from base at new highs, traded with strong volume and strong candle. Promising signs.

MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED [MAH] – rising star and a pop off the 200DMA, all with a volume spike One to watch.

SRG LIMITED [SRG] - Volume has been increasing while the share price has been in a tighter range. Possible accumulation here.

WESTERN AREAS LIMITED [WSA] – candle closed over half mast, strong rally, huge volume spike. Trading from tight base on support line and 50DMA. Viable trading share.

Monday 26 March 2018

Aussie market down -0.52% after Friday’s session brown down, below the symmetrical triangle.

 

The stand out shares from today’s trading, are the Shares In Play for tomorrow:

GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED [GTK] – Break out from congestion at previous resistance. Reasonable volume and strong candle.

PANTORO LIMITED [PNR] – Buyable gap up, strong, tight candle with good volume spike near 52wh.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED [PRU] – Another Buyable gap up. Reasonable congestion zone for the two months prior. Break out from the zone today supported by reasonable volume. Watch for profit taking closer to 52wh as the volume over the las few days shows accumulation before today’s pop.

SILVER CITY MINERALS LIMITED [SCI]- Speculative trading. Lows have been steady but highs have been sliding down. Today’s candle is strong and volume high.

 

Friday 23 March 2018

Heavy down day on the AU markets. Not many places to hide, but these smaller caps are standouts from this month’s leading groups:

 

CLV - CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED – strong continuation on the down day.

RHP - RHIPE LIMITED – large volume, strong candle on a down day for the market – someone was mopping up shares.

WBA - WEBSTER LIMITED – strong candle, strong volume and closed near the highs.

Friday 16 March 2018

AU Market was down without clear direction. On days like this the smaller-caps with lower Betas tend to offer better intra-day trading avenue than the high-beta bluechips.

 

DCN - DACIAN GOLD LIMITED – Rough Cup and Handle pattern with a strong volume mover with reasonable strength candle. Break out with $0.45 rally is possible.

EHL - EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED – First close above the resistance range, promising, however the close below half-way of the day’s trading range reduces probability of strong move.

EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – Higher than average volume with a strong candle and still within the trading rage. Viable trade.

IMD - IMDEX LIMITED [IMD] – Volume spike with reasonable candle, still wining recent ranges. Ideally the range would have higher lows, not lower lows, although the lows not getting lower are promising. Some trading days within the last month have been low volume/value making this a high risk trade.

OKU - OKLO RESOURCES LIMITED [OKU] – Continuation of break out from 8th March 2018.

PAN - PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED [PAN] – continuation trading day. Viable intra-day trading.

PDZ - PRAIRIE MINING LIMITED [PDZ] – Buyable gap up with large volume spike.

PPH - PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED [PPH] - continuation trading day. Viable intra-day trading.

Wednesday 14 March 2018

The stand-out shares from today’s trading were:

AD8 - AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED – solid volume with a strong candle and within the recent trading range. Possible break out soon.

APX - APPEN LIMITED – strong candle for a weak day on the market, break out above recent trading range, but not too far to negate buying. Reasonable volume too

EHL - EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED – Large volume spike, strong day from lower open. Trading and closed within range for viable buying

PDZ - PRAIRIE MINING LIMITED – Possible buyable gap up, but weak candle, insufficient rally from February to warrant a High and Tight Flag. Appears to be a false signal, odds favour a retracement

PPH - PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED – third consecutive day of advancements after a buyable gap up. Risk increased the further the price moves from the 50DMA

RRL - REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – Buyable gap up, although the base from which it broker out was thin and lowers the odds of a successful trade

SBM - ST BARBARA LIMITED – Strong candle, within a base formation, although the lower lows within the base stop this from being an ideal set-up

XRO - XERO LIMITED – similar to PPH; third consecutive day of advancements after a buyable gap up. Risk increased the further the price moves from the 50DMA

Tuesday 13 March 2018

AU Market had a strong rally that fizzled towards the day’s end for an uninspiring close.

 

The stand outs from today’s trading were:

GTK - with a buyable gap up

SM1 - large volume in a tight range, primed for a pop

XRO - promising spinning top, wide range wit ha reasonable gain by day’s end.

         - The momentum has been in the upward direction and after a recent report, the odds favour a continuation to the upside

GOR - two consecutive days with reasonable increase in volume and slight edge north”

 

 

Friday 2 March 2018

The AU market up 0.72% helps trading prospects.

 

The stand out shares from today’s trading, are the Shares In Play for tomorrow:

BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED [BAL] – possible evening star formation, bearish.

BOOM LOGISTICS LIMITED [BOL] – decent volume in congestion zone. Check sister support for canaries in the coal mine. BOL has strong price leverage to sisters rallying.

COCHLEAR LIMITED [COH] – large ranges today, great for day traders with large, solid intra-day trends.

GWA GROUP LIMITED [GWA] – strong candle, possible Cup and Handle Break out (odd cup) or complex Head and Shoulders Bottom break out.

IMDEX LIMITED [IMD] – failed break out could extend to reasonable intra-day movements.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED [JIN] – break out from base at new highs, traded with strong volume and strong candle. Promising signs.

MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED [MAH] – rising star and a pop off the 200DMA, all with a volume spike One to watch.

SRG LIMITED [SRG] - Volume has been increasing while the share price has been in a tighter range. Possible accumulation here.

WESTERN AREAS LIMITED [WSA] – candle closed over half mast, strong rally, huge volume spike. Trading from tight base on support line and 50DMA. Viable trading share.